The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research.
On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.”
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industrywide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump said he wants to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of Jan. 2, according to its website.
Source: Polymarket
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Favorable listing prospects
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.
In August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns SOL qualified as a security, rather than a commodity.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs — the only two types of cryptocurrency ETF permitted to trade on US exchanges — use an atypical “grantor trust” structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers say success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now “overwhelmingly high.”
Source: Polymarket
Bullish bettors
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune analytics.
During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US.
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